2.5 million metric tons to Schwedt: Kazakhstan Requests Resumption of Druzhba Supplies

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Since May 1, no Kazakh oil has been flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Schwedt. On November 4, Energy Minister Jerlan Akkenshenov officially requested the resumption of transit. This involves up to 2.5 million metric tons per year and represents Kazakhstan’s only direct pipeline access to the German market. A response from Moscow is still pending.

Request Delivered in Person: Astana Awaits Moscow’s Response

Akkenshenov announced the move on November 4 at a press conference. “I personally submitted the official request. The Kazakh side is waiting for a response from the Russian side regarding the resumption of deliveries. We have the technical capabilities to do so,” the minister said, according to the Azerbaijani news agency Trend.

Russia had halted transit via the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline as of May 1. Moscow cited technical constraints on the Russian section as the reason. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had already spoken of limited technical capacity back in April. According to Astana, it did not initially receive any official notification of the suspension. Yet business had been growing steadily up to that point: In 2023, Kazakhstan shipped 1 million metric tons via the route, and by 2025, that figure had already reached 2.1 million metric tons. It was not until October 2025 that both sides had extended the transit agreement through the end of 2026. According to Trend, 2.5 million metric tons were planned for 2026; The Times of Central Asia, an English-language regional media outlet, even cites a figure of around 3 million metric tons. From January through April, 1.02 million metric tons still arrived in Germany, according to data from the Russian news agency Interfax—then it came to a halt. The Times of Central Asia also reports drone attacks on the Atyrau-Samara feeder pipeline on November 2. Operations resumed one day later. The incident highlights how vulnerable the route to the West remains.

Alternative Routes: More Tankers, More Caucasus

After the stoppage, Kazakhstan rerouted the volumes. According to The Times of Central Asia, 260,000 metric tons were routed via other routes in May alone, of which 160,000 metric tons went via the CPC system to the Black Sea and 100,000 metric tons via the Russian Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga. Both alternative routes only partially replace the pipeline route to Schwedt: they end at the tanker, not at the refinery. With 64.8 million metric tons in 2025, the CPC system remains by far the dominant export route, though it, too, passes through Russian territory. The Atyrau–Samara pipeline transported approximately 9.3 million metric tons in 2025. In addition, the route via the Caspian Sea is growing: Via the port of Aktau and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Kazakhstan shipped approximately 1.16 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, 24% more than in the same period the previous year. The annual target is 1.7 million metric tons. Total production, however, is declining: For 2026, the Ministry of Energy expects 96 million metric tons of oil and condensate, down from 99.4 million metric tons in 2025. Production is not expected to rise again to around 99 million metric tons until 2027.

Schwedt is currently managing without Kazakh oil

For the PCK refinery in Schwedt, Kazakh oil was a mainstay before the halt. The Times of Central Asia puts its share at 17% of crude oil feedstock. The Nordkurier, a regional newspaper in northeastern Germany, cited a figure of 20 to 30% in May. The refinery meets about 90% of the demand for gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and heating oil in Berlin and Brandenburg. The majority shares held by the Russian owner Rosneft are under trust administration in Germany. Following the halt in deliveries in May, the works council initially warned of a reduction in operations. PCK then replaced the Kazakh volumes with oil shipped through the ports of Rostock and Gdańsk. According to the Times of Central Asia, capacity utilization stood at over 86% at the end of October—well above the 70% threshold that the Nordkurier cites as the limit for economically viable operation. In the short term, therefore, there is no shortage of Kazakh oil in Schwedt.

Nevertheless, the stakes are high for Astana. Kazakh oil is sold under its own KEBCO brand and is not subject to EU sanctions against Russian crude oil. The Druzhba pipeline offers better margins than the detour via tanker and connects Kazakhstan directly to a European buyer. At the same time, the case highlights the limits of Kazakhstan’s diversification: whether it’s Druzhba, CPC, or Ust-Luga, nearly every export route passes through Russian territory. Although the Caspian Corridor is growing at a double-digit rate, it remains a niche route at 1.7 million metric tons per year. It remains to be seen whether Moscow will approve the application, under what conditions, and how quickly. The longer the pipeline remains empty, the more firmly the alternatives from Gdańsk and Rostock will establish themselves in Schwedt. Moscow’s response will thus serve as a test of how reliable transit through Russia still is for Kazakhstan.

Source: Times of Central Asia, Trend (EN), Nordkurier (DE)