72.48 billion cubic meters: Turkmenistan's natural gas production declines for the fourth consecutive year

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Turkmenistan produced 72.48 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2025, 1.4% less than the previous year. This is according to the World Energy Review published on November 2 by the Italian energy company Eni. Production has thus declined for the fourth consecutive year. The Azerbaijani news portal Trend reports that this figure is the lowest since 2019.

Production and exports have been shrinking for years

Eni’s statistics show a steady decline. In 2021, Turkmenistan produced 79.35 billion cubic meters. Since then, production has fallen every year, reaching 72.48 billion cubic meters today. That represents a decline of 8.7% over four years. The situation is even worse for exports. According to Eni, Turkmenistan sold 36.89 billion cubic meters abroad in 2025, 1.4% less than in 2024. In 2019, the figure was still 61.22 billion cubic meters—about 40% more than today. Nearly half of the production now remains within the country: domestic consumption stood at 35.58 billion cubic meters in 2025.

Turkmenistan is not alone in this trend within the region. According to Eni, Kazakhstan’s gas exports plummeted by 28% to 4.77 billion cubic meters, while production fell by 6.1%. Uzbekistan did increase its production by 2.4% to 40.16 billion cubic meters. However, with consumption at 54.32 billion, it used far more than it produced and remains a net importer. Turkmenistan’s foundation remains formidable: Eni lists the country as the world’s fifth-largest holder of reserves, with 13,900 billion cubic meters, behind Russia, Iran, Qatar, and the U.S.

Ashgabat Sticks to Its Target of 80 Billion Cubic Meters

The government paints a different picture. Turkmengaz CEO Maksat Babayev put the production target for 2026 at around 80 billion cubic meters. According to the Turkmen news portal Turkmenportal, he made this statement on October 23 following the “Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan” industry conference in Ashgabat. According to the regional business newspaper *Times of Central Asia*, the trade show attracted around 700 foreign participants—about 40% more than the previous year. Nasar Atadschanow, director of the Turkmen Energy Forum, called it a record. Companies from China and Malaysia were particularly well represented. According to Trend, the government also reported that gas production for the first nine months of 2026 met 109.1% of the target. Ashgabat does not publish absolute figures. The gap between the target and Eni’s estimate amounts to approximately 7.5 billion cubic meters. That is more than Kazakhstan exported in total in 2025. This discrepancy is systematic: Ashgabat has been reporting plan fulfillment as a percentage for years, while external estimates show declining volumes. Eni bases its figures on data from the market research firm Enerdata and other official sources.

The growth is expected to come primarily from the massive Galkynysh field. According to the Times of Central Asia, the fourth phase of development will cost $5.1 billion. Since April, the Chinese state-owned company CNPC has been constructing production wells and a processing plant with a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters per year. Turkmenistan is financing the project itself. China remains the main customer, receiving approximately 30 billion cubic meters annually via the Central Asia–China pipeline. The new capacity accounts for one-third of this volume.

New routes are intended to reduce dependence on China

It remains to be seen where the additional gas will be sent. Ashgabat is banking on two projects. The TAPI pipeline to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India is designed to handle 33 billion cubic meters per year. According to the Times of Central Asia, 122.3 kilometers of pipe had been laid by mid-September on the 153-kilometer section leading to the Afghan city of Herat. The first deliveries to Afghanistan are scheduled to begin in 2027. In addition, there is the Trans-Caspian Pipeline toward Europe. “We are not only interested in the gas pipeline itself, but in the Trans-Caspian corridor as a whole,” Babayev said, according to Turkmenportal in Ashgabat. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov stated there that the country attaches great importance to the expansion of export routes.

Pressure to find new sources of revenue is also growing from a macroeconomic perspective. According to Trend, the growth of Turkmenistan’s foreign trade slowed to 13.2% from January through September 2026. That is 5.2 percentage points less than in the same period the previous year. The figures come from a report submitted by Deputy Prime Minister Nokerkuly Atagulyýew to President Berdimuhamedov on October 16. Here, too, the government does not disclose absolute trade figures.

For both pipeline routes, there are currently no committed buyers, and financing for the connecting sections is still lacking. Until these issues are resolved, Turkmenistan’s gas business remains almost entirely dependent on Beijing. The Eni figures also show that larger reserves do not guarantee increased production. The country needs technology and capital from abroad to reverse the downward trend. Whether the expansion of Galkynysh will be sufficient for this will only become clear from export data in 2027 at the earliest.

Source: Eni World Energy Review 2026, Trend, Trend (Foreign Trade), Times of Central Asia, Times of Central Asia (Galkynysh), Turkmenportal (all EN)