Deficit Doubles: Uzbekistan's Trade Deficit Rises to $9.7 Billion
Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”
Uzbekistan’s trade deficit has more than doubled within a year: from $4.4 billion to $9.7 billion in the first seven months of 2026. Imports rose by 17.8% from January to July, reaching $29.6 billion. Exports fell by 3.6% to 19.9 billion U.S. dollars. This was reported by the Azerbaijani news agency Trend on September 8, citing the National Statistics Committee in Tashkent.
Machinery Drives Imports
Total foreign trade volume grew by 8.1% to $49.5 billion. This growth is almost entirely driven by imports. The largest category is machinery and transportation equipment: US$9.7 billion, an increase of 20% and nearly one-third of all imports. Chemical products rose by 15.6% to US$3.6 billion. Food imports grew the fastest: by 41.9% to $3.3 billion. Added to this were imports of services totaling $3.6 billion and other manufactured goods, which rose by 14% to $1.0 billion.
Behind this surge in imports lies an investment boom. According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), fixed-asset investment rose by 17.5% year-over-year in the first half of the year—more than twice as fast as economic output. Gross domestic product grew by 8.5% during the same period—the strongest growth in any first half of the year over the past five years. China remains the most important trading partner, with bilateral trade totaling $11.3 billion, accounting for 22.7% of total trade. Russia follows with $8.1 billion, and Kazakhstan with $3.3 billion. These three countries account for just under half of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade.
Gold Slump Weighs on Exports
There is one main reason for the decline in exports: gold. In 2025, the precious metal was Uzbekistan’s most important source of revenue. In the first nine months of 2025, the Central Bank sold $9.8 billion worth of gold abroad, accounting for more than 37% of all exports, as reported by the Fergana news agency, citing the Statistics Committee. In 2026, Tashkent halted sales for about half a year and did not resume them until April. According to the Uzbek news portal Kun.uz, gold exports plummeted by 76.8% in the first five months: During this period, the Central Bank sold gold only in April, for $1.5 billion. In the same period the previous year, the figure was $6.5 billion.
The five-month figure illustrates just how wide the gap had become in the meantime. According to Kun.uz, the deficit stood at $7.5 billion at the end of May, with exports down 15.5% from the previous year. By July, the decline in exports had shrunk to 3.6%. This recovery suggests that gold sales are picking up steam again. With the price of gold near historic highs, each round of sales is more lucrative than in the previous year.
Excluding gold, the picture looks better. The Uzbek edition of the Kazakh business newspaper Kursiv puts growth in non-gold exports at 28.7% for the first half of the year. Services are the driving force: According to Kun.uz, exports in this sector rose by 34.9% to $4.6 billion in the first five months, with $2.24 billion coming from tourism and $1.66 billion from transportation services. In the export structure for the first half of the year, services accounted for 39.1%, industrial goods for 15.2%, and textiles for 10.1%, according to *Kursiv*. Non-gold goods exports are thus growing, albeit from a low base.
Deficit Requires Financing
The country must cover a goods deficit of this magnitude through services, remittances from migrant workers, loans, and direct investments. Trend interprets the growth in imports as a build-up of productive capacity but warns: If export growth fails to materialize, external financing will come under pressure. Development banks, however, take a different view. “It’s hard to imagine investment activity in the region without Uzbekistan,” EDB President Nikolai Podguzov told the Uzbek news portal Daryo. The bank has launched a $1.5 billion investment program for Uzbekistan. It targets transportation corridors, renewable energy, digital banking, and water security. According to Daryo, the EDB expects economic growth in Uzbekistan to reach just under 8% for the full year 2026.
The question remains: How quickly will imported machinery be transformed into export-ready factories? Nearly one-third of imports consist of capital goods, which points to capacity building rather than a consumer boom. However, the 41.9% surge in food imports also shows that part of the import boom is fueling domestic demand and is not returning as export revenue. In the short term, Tashkent has a buffer, as the central bank’s gold reserves can be sold at record prices. Structurally, the balance sheet shows that Uzbekistan’s modernization will consume more foreign exchange than exports generate for years to come. The $9.7 billion deficit is the price of the boom.
Source: Trend, Trend, Kursiv Uzbekistan, Kun.uz, Fergana, Daryo (all EN)