Eastern Europe's demographic crisis worsens

The Eastern European member states of the European Union are increasingly under pressure from a shrinking and ageing population. New data from the EU statistics office Eurostat shows that the demographic challenges are being exacerbated by population decline, low birth rates and continuing emigration. While the total population of the EU rose slightly to 451 million people on January 1, 2025 - around one million more than in the previous year - many Eastern European countries continued to record significant population losses. Over the period from 2005 to 2025, the population of the EU as a whole grew by 4%. However, eight member states suffered population declines, most of which were in Central and Eastern Europe. According to Eurostat, Latvia (-17%), Bulgaria (-16%), Lithuania (-14%), Romania (-11%) and Croatia (-10%) recorded the sharpest relative declines. In absolute terms, Romania and Poland each lost around two million inhabitants within 20 years, while Bulgaria's population shrank by around one million people. This development illustrates the long-term consequences of emigration, low birth rates and an ageing population in Eastern Europe. At the same time, many Western European countries are increasingly supporting their population growth through immigration. Ageing societies put pressure on labor markets Poland, once one of the youngest societies in Europe, is now ageing particularly rapidly. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over rose by eight percentage points between 2005 and 2025 - the highest increase within the EU. On January 1, 2025, a total of 99 million people aged 65 or older lived in the European Union. Their share of the total population was therefore 22%. In many Eastern European countries, ageing is also accelerating, as younger workers are often migrating to economically stronger EU countries. The proportion of over 80-year-olds increased particularly sharply in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia. Birth rates remain far too low At the same time, birth rates continue to fall. In 2024, the average fertility rate in the EU was just 1.34 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children. Although Bulgaria had the highest fertility rate in the EU at 1.72 children per woman, many Eastern European countries continue to have a negative natural population trend, as the number of deaths significantly exceeds the number of births. Eurostat recorded the strongest negative growth rates per 1,000 inhabitants in Latvia (-7.4), Bulgaria (-7.3) and Lithuania (-6.4). At the same time, mortality rates in Eastern Europe remain high. Bulgaria recorded the highest figure in the EU with 15.6 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by Latvia (14.3) and Hungary (13.4). Life expectancy increases, differences remain Life expectancy has improved significantly since many Eastern European countries joined the EU. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences compared to Western Europe. In 2024, the average life expectancy in the EU was 81.5 years. The lowest values were measured in Bulgaria (75.8 years), Latvia (76.4 years) and Romania (76.5 years). However, the Baltic states recorded the greatest progress. In Estonia, life expectancy rose by seven years within 20 years, in Latvia and Lithuania by around 5.5 years each. The large difference between men and women also remains striking. Latvia has the largest gap within the EU: Women there reach an average age of 81.2 years, men only 71.4 years - a difference of 9.8 years. Migration is gaining in importance Migration is playing an increasingly important role in population development in Eastern Europe. While Germany and Spain continue to receive the most immigrants, several Eastern European countries are also increasingly relying on immigration to compensate for labor shortages and population losses. In 2024, almost six million people immigrated to EU countries. Around 74% came from countries outside the European Union. The Czech Republic had one of the highest proportions of foreign immigrants within the EU. There, 98% of immigrants did not have Czech citizenship. This was followed by Cyprus (94%) and Austria, Germany, Malta and Luxembourg with 93% each. The trend was different in Romania, Latvia and Slovakia. The majority of immigrants there were returning citizens. In Romania, 64% of immigrants were Romanian nationals, in Latvia 61% and in Slovakia 53%. However, this return migration has not yet been able to compensate for the long-term population decline. Demographic challenges remain The proportion of young people is now falling in all EU member states. Over the past 20 years, the proportion of under-19s has fallen in every EU country. Many countries in Central and Eastern Europe are therefore facing a double challenge: shrinking young generations and, at the same time, rapidly growing older population groups. This increases the pressure on pension systems, healthcare and labor markets. Social developments are also changing. Latvia had the highest marriage rate in the EU in 2024 with 5.5 marriages per 1,000 inhabitants, followed by Romania with 5.3. At the same time, the Baltic states continue to have some of the highest divorce rates in Europe. There are also differences when it comes to starting a family. The youngest first-time mothers live in Bulgaria (26.9 years), Romania (27.2 years) and Slovakia (27.4 years), while women in Southern Europe have children much later. Despite economic convergence with Western Europe, the demographic outlook for large parts of Eastern Europe remains difficult. Low birth rates, continuing emigration and the ageing of society are likely to have a long-term negative impact on growth prospects, public finances and the availability of labor. Governments in Central and Eastern Europe are therefore trying to counteract this with family support programs, tax incentives and return initiatives. Countries such as Hungary and Poland have introduced extensive measures to increase the birth rate in recent years, but so far with limited success. At the same time, many countries are increasingly recruiting workers from third countries, particularly from Ukraine and various Asian countries. The Eurostat data thus clearly shows that migration is also increasingly becoming a key economic and political factor in Eastern Europe. At the beginning of 2025, almost 10% of the inhabitants of the European Union were citizens of another country. The post Eastern Europe's demographic crisis worsens appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.