In the past, Shemshat Kurbanova, a 62-year-old pensioner from Ashgabat, always bought her fruit from Iran because it was fresh and cheap. But since February 28, 2026, when the first American and Israeli bombs fell on Iran, that has changed. "Everything has doubled in price," she told the AFP news agency. A mandarin now costs 1.90 dollars, an apple more than two dollars. Iran begins just a few kilometers behind the Kopet Dag mountains - a conflict that for the people of Turkmenistan is taking place right on their doorstep.
Turkmenistan is the country most directly affected by the war: The country shares a long border with Iran, is dependent on its food and is closely linked to Tehran through energy swap deals. But the shockwaves reach as far as Tashkent, Almaty and Dushanbe. The Iran war is therefore not a distant conflict for Central Asia, but an economic shock.
The economic ties are close: Tehran supplies Turkmen gas with food, and there are also joint electricity projects and lively border trade. When Iran imposed a complete export ban on agricultural products on March 3, 2026, Turkmenistan was immediately affected. Trader Byashim Ovezov from Ashgabat warns: "The flow of goods has collapsed. If the war continues, people like me will lose their livelihoods."
Kyrgyz economist Iskender Sharsheyev emphasizes the structural importance of the neighbouring country. Iran has long acted as a window to the south - a corridor to the Persian Gulf and the markets of India and Europe. This route is now paralyzed. Alternatives via China or Turkey are more expensive and logistically more complex. At the moment, there is no quick substitute for Iranian transit, according to Sharsheyev.
Shortly before the fighting began, the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan took part in multilateral talks within the framework of the "Board of Peace" initiated by Trump. Catherine Putz wrote dryly in The Diplomat: It was uncomfortable, she said, to have publicly called Trump the president of peace while he was plunging the Middle East into a potentially catastrophic conflict. This quote is less about the Central Asian capitals than about the speed with which the international situation has changed.
The region's foreign ministries reacted calmly: There were appeals for de-escalation, commitments to the UN Charter and a commitment to strict neutrality. The Kazakh Foreign Ministry expressed its sympathy to the Iranian people in view of the civilian victims. This form of communication underlines Central Asia's desire to maintain stable relations with all actors.
Although direct trade with Iran accounts for only a small part of Uzbekistan's GDP, logistics is a vulnerable point. Up to 60 percent of goods imported from Turkey and Europe reach Uzbekistan via Iranian ports such as Bandar Abbas. As the southern corridor is now blocked, President Mirziyoyev has ordered the examination of alternatives. One possible compensation could be the rising price of gold, as Uzbekistan exported ten billion dollars worth of precious metals in 2025. This could partially compensate for the higher logistics costs.
The war was even felt on Kazakhstan's Women's Day: as Arab airlines suspended their operations, the price of imported roses rose by 20 percent. But the strategic risks weigh heavier. In addition to rising insurance premiums, the grain market is particularly affected. Kazakhstan exports up to 1.2 million tons of grain to Iran every year.
In the short term, Kazakhstan benefits from the high prices as an oil exporter. However, economic strategist Alex Matrsson sees this as more than pure arithmetic: under President Tokayev, the country has invested in trans-Caspian trade routes and partnerships with Gulf states - not as a reaction to the crisis, but to be prepared for such moments. In a world where maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can be closed overnight, land-based corridors through Central Asia are becoming increasingly important.
Historian Peter Frankopan describes Tokayev as a shrewd strategist who carefully weighs up competing interests. Central Asia has proven in recent years that it can adapt quickly to new realities. Meanwhile, Shemshat Kurbanova, a pensioner from Ashgabat, is simply hoping that the mandarins at her market stall will soon become affordable again.
Sources: AFP/France24 (Ashgabat, 10.3.2026); The Diplomat/Catherine Putz (3.3.2026); Gazeta.uz (Kholboev/Eskandari, 3.-5.3.2026); Inbusiness.kz (8.3.2026); LSM.kz (Abdrakhmanov); DKNews/Alex Matrsson (2.3.2026); Times of Central Asia/Peter Frankopan (10.3.2026); SpecialEurasia (8.3.2026).
Original column (German):
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