Weaker investment and consumption growth slowing down Poland's economy

Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to seasonally adjusted preliminary data from the CIS statistical office on June 1. The result is 0.1 percentage points higher than the GUS flash estimate published in mid-May. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy had still grown by 3.7%. The main reasons for the slowdown were weaker growth in private consumption and lower investment momentum. "We had feared that the decline in investment would be greater than actually observed, while private consumption was somewhat weaker than expected," explained Erste Group in an analysis. Investments rose by 2.4% in the first quarter compared to the previous year, after growing by 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Private consumption increased by 3.3%, slowing down from 4.3% in the previous quarter. Continued robust domestic demand boosted imports, while weaker international demand weighed on exports. As a result, net exports had an overall neutral impact on economic growth in the first quarter, having depressed GDP by 0.3 percentage points in the previous quarter. Despite the weaker development at the start of the year, analysts continue to expect solid economic growth for the year as a whole. The Polish economy is likely to grow by around 3.4% in 2026, after growth of 3.6% is expected for 2025. "We expect growth in private consumption to slow from 3.7% in the previous year to around 3%. Lower wage growth and a likely decline in demand for consumer durables due to uncertainty in the Middle East and higher fuel prices, which limit households' financial leeway, will have a negative impact," explained ING. At the same time, the analysts expect investment to play a stronger role as a growth driver. "GDP growth is likely to be increasingly supported by higher investment. We expect that investment could rise by almost 8% this year thanks to the use of funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and greater use of EU cohesion funds," says ING. On a quarterly basis, the Polish economy grew by 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis between January and March, following growth of 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Adjusted for inflation, GDP growth in the first quarter was 3.5% year-on-year, compared to 4.1% in the previous three months. The post Weaker investment and consumption growth slows Poland's economy appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.