Fitch lowers forecast for Poland's GDP growth in 2026 to 3.3%

On June 8, Fitch Global Ratings lowered its forecast for Poland's economic growth in 2026 from 3.6% to 3.3%. The rating agency cited weaker GDP data and a slowdown in foreign demand as the reasons for this. Fitch left its growth forecast for 2027 unchanged at 2.9%. For 2028, the agency expects growth of 3.2% and thus a return to Poland's estimated long-term growth potential. "We have lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 from 3.6% to 3.3%. This reflects weaker economic performance and lower external demand, including the downward revision of the Eurozone growth outlook," Fitch said. For 2027, the agency expects a slight slowdown in growth as fiscal consolidation and declining public investment from EU funds are likely to curb economic momentum. At the same time, Fitch continues to see several factors supporting the Polish economy. These include the tight labor market, rising wages, improved bank lending and a comparatively expansive fiscal policy. The agency also refers to the European Union's SAFE loan program worth EUR 43.7 billion. This is intended to support defense spending and strengthen the contribution of the Polish defense industry to economic growth in the long term. Fitch has also adjusted its inflation expectations. The forecast for the end of 2026 has been raised from 3.3% to 3.5%. The agency cites rising energy prices due to the tensions between the USA, Israel and Iran as the main reason. In the following years, however, inflation is expected to gradually decline towards the target corridor of the Polish central bank. With regard to the key interest rate, Fitch expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave the reference rate at 3.75% until the end of 2026. For 2027, the agency expects a reduction of 25 basis points to 3.5%, where the interest rate is likely to remain until the end of 2028. "The outlook reflects the trade-off between fighting inflation and a continued loose fiscal policy, a tight labor market and increased inflation expectations," explained Fitch. For the exchange rate, the agency forecasts a slight weakening of the zloty. The Polish currency is likely to fall to 3.65 zlotys per US dollar by the end of 2026 and to 3.68 zlotys by the end of 2027. Fitch cites current market trends and expected changes in macroeconomic and foreign trade conditions as the reasons for this. Fitch expects private consumption to grow by 3.8% in 2026. This is likely to slow to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028. Investments are expected to rise by 5.0% in 2026, followed by 2.9% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028. Of the three major international rating agencies, Moody's currently rates Poland highest with a credit rating of A2 and a negative outlook. Fitch and S&P both give the country an A- rating. While S&P assigns a stable outlook, Fitch maintains its negative outlook for Poland. The post Fitch lowers forecast for Poland's GDP growth in 2026 to 3.3% appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.