Inflation slows Poland's recovery

Poland's economic recovery is coming under pressure: an ongoing conflict in the Middle East could weaken demand in the eurozone - and thus affect precisely those sectors that rely on consumption and exports. This is the conclusion of a recent analysis by Bank Pekao. Rising energy and commodity prices act as a double brake. They drive up inflation and at the same time reduce purchasing power. Sectors such as the furniture, textile and household appliance industries, which are heavily dependent on the European sales market, are particularly vulnerable. For them, the hoped-for recovery could be further delayed. Other sectors are benefiting from the situation, at least in the short term. Mining, for example, should receive a tailwind from higher coal prices. Parts of the chemical industry could also benefit from rising primary product prices and less competition from the Middle East. Services, on the other hand, are more robust. According to the report, sectors such as IT, business services and waste management are considered to be comparatively crisis-proof - with stable prospects even in a tense environment. In the more favorable scenario of a rapid geopolitical easing, service-related sectors in particular would benefit. Industry and construction, on the other hand, would remain vulnerable to rising costs and fluctuating demand. Material costs are a key risk: in addition to geopolitical upheaval, increased infrastructure investment and the introduction of the carbon border tax (CBAM) are driving up prices for imported metals and chemical precursors. Some relief could come from the labor market. Wage pressure is easing, but costs remain high, particularly for industry and construction. The state, on the other hand, is likely to have a stabilizing effect: public investment, supported by EU funds, is gaining momentum and could make an important contribution to growth in 2026 - even if uncertainties remain high. The post Inflation slows Poland's recovery appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.