Central Asia
Kazakhstan's service sector is growing again
ostwirtschaft.de
·
May 11, 2026
Kazakhstan's service sector grew again in April. According to the Freedom Holding Corp PMI survey published by S&P Global, business activity rose at its fastest pace in nine months.
The business activity index rose from 49.2 points in March to 53.9 points in April. This took it back above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. It was the first expansion in the service sector for three months.
The survey points to the strongest growth in business activity since July 2025. The development was mainly supported by a significant increase in new orders. Many companies reported stronger demand, higher turnover and better capacity utilization.
More demand, but higher costs
At the same time, cost pressure increased again. Input cost inflation accelerated and again approached the highs of January, when adjustments in connection with VAT had a particularly strong impact.
Despite higher costs, the rise in sales prices slowed. Some companies opted for more competitive prices in order to secure their sales volumes and attract new customers.
Saltanat Mukhambetaliyeva, Head of the Economic Research and Analysis Department at Freedom Holding Operations, said: "Kazakhstan's services sector saw a significant acceleration in April after three months of decline. The business activity index rose to 53.9 points, up 4.8 points on the previous month, supported by an increase in new orders."
Recovery remains cautious
However, Mukhambetaliyeva warned against overestimating the strong monthly rise. Such a significant improvement is atypical for the Kazakh market and in the past has mainly been observed in recovery phases after crises, such as after the pandemic or in 2022.
The improvement remains limited and is not accompanied by a fundamental change in the fundamentals. This can be seen, among other things, in the continued cautious employment policy and increased restructuring measures.
Cost pressure is now being driven primarily by higher wages and rising input costs, rather than by tax factors. According to Freedom Holding, growth was mainly concentrated in the real estate sector, which benefited from a 16% year-on-year increase in mortgage lending, as well as in business services. By contrast, consumer-related areas and the transportation sector remained subdued.
Expectations for the coming twelve months remained moderately optimistic, but were still below the long-term average.
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