Inflation remains stable according to central bank

According to the latest forecast by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), inflation in Poland is expected to remain within the target range until the end of 2028. This was announced by NBP Governor Adam Glapiński on March 5 during the presentation of the current projections.

The central bank expects the annual inflation rate to fall to between 1.6 and 2.9 percent in 2026. In the previous forecast from November 2025, the range was between 1.9 and 4 percent. For 2027, the NBP expects an inflation rate of between 1.1 and 3.7 percent. This is slightly narrower than the previous forecast of 1.1 to 4.1 percent. For 2028, the central bank expects an inflation rate of between 0.9 and 4 percent.

The average of these estimates remains within the NBP's target range. The Polish central bank is aiming for an inflation rate of 2.5 percent and allows a deviation of one percentage point up or down.

Geopolitical risks remain

Glapiński pointed out that geopolitical developments could only be taken into account to a limited extent in the current forecasts. "The forecast does not take into account the consequences of the escalation in the Middle East or the effects of an attack on Iran. Apart from potentially higher fuel prices, it is currently difficult to assess what economic consequences this could have," said the central bank chief.

The outlook for core inflation has also improved, Glapiński explained. The central bank considers this figure to be an important indicator of underlying price pressure. According to the NBP's assessment, core inflation is likely to remain close to its long-term average of around 2.5 percent throughout the forecast period.

Further interest rate cut decided

The central bank governor's statements followed the NBP's latest monetary policy decision. On March 4, the National Bank's Monetary Policy Council lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent.

The central bank thus continued its easing course. This followed a two-month pause after five consecutive interest rate cuts between July and December.

In 2025, the NBP cut interest rates a total of six times by a combined 175 basis points as inflation approached the central bank's target range.

According to the Polish Statistical Office (GUS), annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.2 percent in January. This was 0.2 percentage points lower than in December.