Poland moves up to fourth place: France under pressure as a trading partner

Thomas Baier Only 4.8 billion euros separate Poland and France in the ranking of Germany's most important trading partners. If the pace remains the same, Poland will overtake its western neighbor in 2026. According to Destatis, the German Federal Statistical Office, German-Polish trade will reach a volume of 180.2 billion euros in 2025. This corresponds to growth of 5.5% compared to the previous year. Franco-German trade amounted to around 185 billion euros - an increase of just 1.6%. The gap is shrinking fast. In the first half of 2025 alone, bilateral trade exceeded the EUR 90 billion mark. German exports to Poland rose to 49.4 billion euros (+5.7%), Polish deliveries to Germany to 40.6 billion euros (+5.2%). By comparison, German exports to China amounted to 41.4 billion euros in the same period. Poland is already a more important export market for German companies than China. Rise in the rankings In 2004, the year Poland joined the EU, it was still far behind Germany's traditional trading partners. Since then, the country has climbed steadily up the rankings. Italy and China have already overtaken Poland. France is the next target. The current ranking of Germany's largest trading partners by total volume in 2025: China (252.2 billion euros), USA (241.3 billion), Netherlands (209.0 billion), France (~185 billion), Poland (180.2 billion). Poland's growth rate is three to four times that of France. According to the Polish Institute of Economics PIE, Poland's economy is now 42% larger than it would be without EU membership. GDP per capita reached 81% of the EU average for the first time in 2025 - the highest figure since accession. Convergence with Western Europe is accelerating. The rise has structural reasons. Poland's GDP grew by 3.6% in 2025 - the fourth highest growth in the EU, behind Ireland (12.3%), Malta (4.0%) and Cyprus (3.8%). The EU Commission forecasts 3.5% for 2026. According to the Polish Ministry of Finance, investments are set to increase by 10 to 11%. In addition, there will be a record volume of EU funds: 180 billion zlotys will flow to Poland in 2026, 120 billion zlotys of which will come from the national reconstruction plan KPO. At the same time, Warsaw is consolidating its budget. The deficit is set to fall to 6.3% of GDP in 2026. New sources of revenue include a temporary special tax on banks, higher excise duties and the introduction of mandatory electronic invoicing. What this means for German companies For German SMEs, Poland has long ceased to be anPoland Germany trading partner 2026,German-Polish trade,Poland France foreign trade,Poland economic growth 2026,German exports Poland,bilateral trade Poland,Poland EU funds KPO,Destatis trading partner ranking extended workbench anymore. The country is developing into a fully-fledged sales market with increasing purchasing power. Private consumption is driving growth, supported by rising real wages and inflation, which is expected to fall to 2.6% in 2026 according to a survey by the Polish central bank. Demand for German machinery, vehicle parts and industrial equipment is growing in line with the Polish economy. EU investment funds are flowing into infrastructure, energy and digitalization - sectors in which German suppliers traditionally have a strong presence. The major CPK airport and a new high-speed rail network are driving additional orders. At the same time, Poland is diversifying its energy sector. The first offshore wind turbines will feed electricity into the grid in 2026. The state gas network operator Gaz System is planning a demand survey for a second floating LNG terminal. This will also open up supply opportunities for German companies. Outlook: 2026 as a turning point Whether Poland actually overtakes France in 2026 depends on several factors. Polish growth must remain at the current level. EU funds must flow out as planned. And the German economy itself must export more again after two weak years. Fiscal policy remains a risk. Poland's budget deficit of 6.3% is one of the highest in the EU. Rising social spending, salary increases in the public sector and growing healthcare costs are putting pressure on the budget. The EU Commission is keeping a close eye on the debt. Nevertheless, the direction is clear. Poland's share of German foreign trade has been increasing for 20 years. The country is Germany's most important trading partner in Central Eastern Europe. In a few months, it could be the most important on the European continent after the Netherlands. For German exporters, the question is no longer whether Poland is relevant. The question is whether they have a sufficient presence there. The post Poland moves up to fourth place: France under pressure as a trading partner appeared first on ostwirtschaft.de.