Japan's return to Central Asia

Central Asia column "Steppe Ahead"

Author: Thorsten Gutmann

Japan is exploiting the geopolitical vacuum in Central Asia. While Russia is tied up in the war in Ukraine and China dominates but at the same time arouses mistrust, Tokyo is strengthening its presence in the region – after years of relative restraint.

This is actually a return. Back in 2004, Japan was the first country to involve all five republics in a joint dialogue with the "Central Asia plus Japan" format. But interest waned, meetings became increasingly rare, and political attention shifted to East Asia. Now Tokyo is picking up where it left off, signaling that Central Asia is once again gaining strategic importance.

At the end of August, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya traveled to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The results of his talks went beyond diplomatic routine: a joint declaration, medical aid for Kazakhstan, new scholarship programs for Uzbekistan, the agreement on a biannual dialogue mechanism, the resumption of the "Central Asia plus Japan" summit, and the announcement of a direct flight between Tokyo and Almaty starting in 2026.

This is a win for Central Asia. Tokyo brings technology, expertise, and capital that are urgently needed in areas such as digitalization, energy, and green tech. Training and work programs promote human capital, which the region lacks, and also offer Japan itself relief from its shortage of skilled workers. Politically, the return of a reliable, non-hegemonic partner means additional leeway in an environment that has been strongly influenced by Moscow and Beijing up to now.

But the limitations are clear. Japan's influence remains small, geographical distance complicates projects, and its reluctance on geopolitical issues such as its stance on Russia creates trust but limits its reach.

Whether the initiative will bear fruit will depend on whether the announced summit actually takes place and concrete projects follow. For investors, opportunities are opening up in energy, infrastructure, and logistics. For governments, Japan's commitment means freedom of action in foreign policy. For companies, markets with more reliable framework conditions are emerging.

Tokyo is thus returning to a stage that it once helped to shape. After years of silence, Japan is once again setting the tone – quietly, pragmatically, and for the long term. That could be exactly what makes the difference.

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