Author: Thorsten Gutmann
US President Donald Trump is currently punishing many countries with tariffs. But a look at Central Asia reveals something unusual: Kazakhstan is the only country in the region subject to a 25 percent import tariff – significantly more than its neighbors Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, which pay only 10 percent. In doing so, the US is not only targeting its largest trading partner in Central Asia, but also the most important transit country between China, Russia, and Europe.
Officially, Washington justifies the higher tariffs on the basis of trade and competition policy considerations. Unofficially, however, there is a strategic intention behind this: Kazakhstan is a hub for almost half of China's trade in Central Asia, exported a record amount to Beijing in 2024, and is closely involved in Chinese infrastructure and raw materials projects. With $9.3 billion in debt to China and the largest known deposits of rare earths in the region, the country is at the center of the competition for raw materials between East and West.
From the US perspective, it makes sense to put pressure on Astana to loosen its close ties with Beijing and Moscow. But Washington could be overestimating its own leverage: the US market plays only a minor role for Kazakhstan compared to Russia, China, or the EU. Politically and economically, it is primarily Moscow and Beijing that set the agenda – and their influence is unlikely to be weakened by American punitive tariffs.
As an analysis by the US magazine The National Interest shows, China is trying to further expand its position: during Xi Jinping's visit to Astana in June 2025, projects worth US$24 billion were agreed upon – ranging from solar power plants to urea plants. The latter are of strategic importance to Beijing: the Chinese agricultural sector's growing demand for nitrogen fertilizers makes the country dependent on Russian supplies. Kazakhstan could serve as an alternative supplier here – and thus forge even closer ties with China.
For Kazakhstan, US policy poses less of a risk of immediate economic losses than of a geopolitical stress test. The greater threat lies in Trump's unpredictability – and in the possibility that tariffs or secondary sanctions will escalate.
Despite everything, Kazakhstan remains an attractive raw materials and energy market for companies. However, anyone wishing to invest here in the long term must keep a close eye not only on the balance sheets, but also on the geopolitical balance of power between Russia, China, and the US – and be aware that Washington does not necessarily hold the strongest card in this triangle.
Original column (German):
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