Central Asia column "Steppe Ahead"
Author: Thorsten Gutmann
A canal is being built in northern Afghanistan that could change the balance of power in Central Asia. Qosh Tepa, as it is called, stretches for almost 300 kilometers through the provinces of Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab. It is fed by the Amu Darya, the river that flows from the glaciers of the Pamir Mountains along the Afghan border and is the most important lifeline for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Kabul plans to divert up to a third of its water to previously undeveloped agricultural land.
The idea is an old one. Even in the Soviet Union, there were plans to divert water from the Amu Darya to Afghanistan. They were never realized. Today, the Taliban government is implementing the project with greater determination than ever before – as proof of its own ability to act. Following the ban on poppy cultivation, the canal is intended to create jobs, increase exports, and consolidate the regime's legitimacy. It is being financed by mining revenues, and several thousand people are working on the construction sites.
For Afghanistan, Qosh Tepa represents hope. For its neighbors, it represents danger. Uzbekistan would have to reckon with a 15 percent decline in its water resources, Turkmenistan with up to 80 percent in the worst case. Even now, the Amu Darya barely reaches the Aral Sea. The additional loss of water could seal the ecological collapse – with salinated soils, crop failures, and new dust storms.
The satellite images speak for themselves: leaks, unsecured embankments, evaporation losses of up to 40 percent. Efficiency looks different. But for the Taliban, it's the symbolic value that counts. While Europe and the US are dismantling dams to renature rivers, Kabul is relying on gigantic diversions – and repeating mistakes that have already led Central Asia into an ecological dead end.
The canal is also geopolitically explosive. Uzbekistan has officially granted Afghanistan the "right" to use it in order to avoid confrontation. But behind the diplomacy, nervousness is growing. Water is not a minor issue in Central Asia, but a matter of national security. Population growth, climate change, and exhausted irrigation systems are exacerbating the pressure.
Qosh Tepa could make northern Afghanistan fertile – or trigger the next major water crisis in Central Asia. The decisive factors will be whether modern irrigation techniques are used, regional rules for distribution are created, and accompanying ecological measures are taken seriously. If this fails, the canal threatens to become less a symbol of new beginnings and more a warning sign: a second Aral Sea, this time in the name of development.
Original column (German):
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