Central Asia column "Steppe Ahead"
Author: Thorsten Gutmann
It was a bombshell shortly before the turn of the year 2025 that largely went unnoticed in the capitals between Berlin and Brussels, but caused a diplomatic sensation in Astana and Tashkent. In the week before Christmas, Donald Trump picked up the phone to call Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The result: an informal invitation to the 2026 G20 summit in Miami.
What may seem like an impulsive gesture at first glance is actually a highly pragmatic move. While Western Europe often still views the "Stan states" with a mixture of condescension and unease, Washington has long recognized that the center of gravity in Eurasia is shifting.
When I talk to young people here in the cafes of Tashkent or in the coworking spaces of Astana, I encounter a perspective that differs fundamentally from the European perception. While Trump's rude behavior is often sharply criticized in Germany, his determination is very well received in Central Asia.
The younger generation views the US almost exclusively in a positive light. They see America as a country of power, technological excellence, and economic opportunity. Europe, on the other hand, is viewed with increasing skepticism. Disappointment often resonates in conversations. People look at a continent struggling with migration crises, economic stagnation, and a profound search for identity.
Many young Uzbeks and Kazakhs perceive a certain European double standard: a patronizing tone on political issues, while their own economic momentum slows. Trump, on the other hand, does not preach morality, but makes offers based on economic realism. This is seen as a sign of respect on equal terms.
The invitation to Miami is recognition of a new reality: the region has emancipated itself as a "middle power." The global upheavals since 2022 have acted as a catalyst in this process. Kazakhstan, in particular, has emphasized its position under international law and its territorial integrity. In Astana and Tashkent, there is now a consistent search for diversification of partners in order to secure their own sovereignty.
Trump is exploiting this quest for independence with strategic precision. While the German economy is laboriously attempting to revive the route across the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia – the so-called "Middle Corridor" – Washington is creating facts on the ground.
Behind the scenes of diplomacy lie massive economic interests:
When Tokayev and Mirziyoyev sit at the G20 table in Miami in 2026, it will be much more than symbolic. It will be proof that the US is prepared to break with old protocols in order to secure strategic resources and influence.
For the German economy and institutions such as the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, this is a wake-up call. Although Germany has excellent contacts, it is in danger of falling behind in the face of the speed and ideology-free pragmatism of US diplomacy.
Central Asia is no longer the "hinterland" of Eurasia. It is the crucial corridor of a new world order. And while Europe is still discussing moral standards, Trump has already assigned the seats at the table in Washington.
Original column (German):
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